Started Feb 22, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Nesta asks

Before 1 January 2020, will either SpaceX or Boeing launch its first crewed space mission?

For nearly a decade commercial enterprises have competed to partner with NASA, and both SpaceX and Boeing have been expected to be certified for their first crewed space missions in 2019 (NASA, CNET, Reuters).

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Name Probability
No 92%
Yes, only SpaceX 6%
Yes, only Boeing 1%
Yes, both SpaceX and Boeing 1%

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