Started Jan 19, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 05, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Who will be the next mayor of London?

Elections for the next mayor of London will be held on 5 May 2016. The main candidates are Zac Goldsmith of the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan of Labour (The World in 2016). The mayor of London is responsible for a budget of £17 billion, with powers over transport, housing, economic development, the environment, and the arts (London Elects). Recommended Question Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership? Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016? Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Sadiq Khan 92%
None of the above 0%
Zac Goldsmith 8%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 532
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 1377
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.179
3.
-0.179

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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