Started Jan 21, 2016 03:47PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 01, 2016 07:59AM UTC

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?

Sign up and enter your own forecast, if you're here for the Monkey Cage Challenge! For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: Candidates, How the Presidential Primary Works, Schedule. You may have noticed that there are two questions on the site regarding the Iowa Republican caucuses. The reason is that with the launch of the Monkey Cage challenge, we wanted a broad question that rates the chances of all of the candidates. The earlier question, launched back in September, was focused on the Trump phenomenon and his staying power. If you forecast on one, we would appreciate you forecasting on both. This question will be the official question for the Monkey Cage challenge, but they’ll be looking at data from both to see if there are any differences in forecasted probabilities based on the framing of the question. Recommended Questions Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeb Bush 4%
Ben Carson 1%
Mike Huckabee 0%
Chris Christie 0%
Ted Cruz 34%
Carly Fiorina 0%
Jim Gilmore 0%
John Kasich 0%
Rand Paul 0%
Marco Rubio 12%
Rick Santorum 0%
Donald Trump 49%

No. of
Forecasters

1584

Forecast
Count

2124

Crowd Brier Score

0.6014


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.625
2.
-0.551
3.
-0.529
4.
-0.523
5.
-0.523

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