Started Apr 26, 2019 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?

The legal implications surrounding self-driving vehicles are of special interest to many stakeholders of the auto industry (Reuters, NY Times, The Atlantic, CNN, Popular Science). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a firm 0%
Yes, a paid backup driver 0%
Yes, both 0%
No 100%

No. of
Forecasters

220

Forecast
Count

444

Crowd Brier Score

0.043


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.073
2.
-0.073
3.
-0.073
5.
-0.069