The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 January 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?

Started Apr 26, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The legal implications surrounding self-driving vehicles are of special interest to many stakeholders of the auto industry (Reuters, NY Times, The Atlantic, CNN, Popular Science). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a firm 0%
Yes, a paid backup driver 0%
Yes, both 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 220
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 444
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.072824
2.
-0.072824
3.
-0.072824
4.
-0.069151
5.
-0.069151

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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