Started May 03, 2019 04:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 23, 2019 06:59AM UTC (2 days ago)

Nesta asks

If the UK participates in European Parliament elections, what percentage of votes will the Brexit Party win?

The UK's participation in the 2019 European Parliament election is required under the latest extension to the Brexit process (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47826886, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47946256, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-extension-text/text-eu-agreement-to-extend-brexit-idUSKCN1RN01E).

Name Probability
Less than 20.00% 13%
Between 20.00% and 25.00%, inclusive 17%
Between 25.00% and 30.00% 23%
Between 30.00% and 35.00%, inclusive 29%
More than 35.00% 18%

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