Nesta asks
If the UK participates in European Parliament elections, what percentage of votes will the Brexit Party win?
Started
May 03, 2019 04:00PM UTC
Closed May 23, 2019 06:59AM UTC
Closed May 23, 2019 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
The UK's participation in the 2019 European Parliament election is required under the latest extension to the Brexit process (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47826886, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47946256, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-extension-text/text-eu-agreement-to-extend-brexit-idUSKCN1RN01E).
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The question closed "Between 30.00% and 35.00%, inclusive" with a closing date of 26 May 2019 (Results).
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 20.00% | 8% | |
| Between 20.00% and 25.00%, inclusive | 14% | |
| Between 25.00% and 30.00% | 25% | |
| Between 30.00% and 35.00%, inclusive | 36% | |
| More than 35.00% | 17% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 198 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 292 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
