When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?

Started Jun 28, 2019 06:30PM UTC
Closed Dec 30, 2019 07:59AM UTC

After two fatal crashes in five months, regulators around the world grounded Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft pending further investigations (NPR, LA Times). When the plane might return to service has been the subject of much speculation (Business Insider, Simple Flying, USA Today, Reuters).

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NOTE: this question will not be included with final scoring for the Finance Forecasting Challenge.



The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 October 2019 0%
Between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive 0%
Not before 1 January 2020 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 404
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 843
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0218
3.
-0.020374
4.
-0.019831
5.
-0.019485

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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