Started Jul 01, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Sep 30, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (https://www.earlywarningproject.org). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.


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Name Probability
Yes 5%

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