Before 1 November 2019, will the British oil tanker Stena Impero be released from Iranian custody?

Started Aug 09, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 26, 2019 03:00PM UTC

Iranian forces seized the British-flagged Stena Impero on 19 July 2019, stoking tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically crucial waterway for oil & gas markets (BBC, Time, BBC, EIA). The Iranian government claims the ship was seized due to a collision with a fishing vessel, though the seizure has also been seen as retaliation for British actions (LA Times, Reuters). The release of the Stena Impero crew from Iranian custody is immaterial to the resolution of the question.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 26 September 2019 (Reuters).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 375
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.19
2.
-0.188
3.
-0.154
4.
-0.149
5.
-0.135

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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