Started Aug 09, 2019 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Nov 01, 2019 07:00AM UTC

Before 1 November 2019, will the British oil tanker Stena Impero be released from Iranian custody?

Iranian forces seized the British-flagged Stena Impero on 19 July 2019, stoking tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically crucial waterway for oil & gas markets (BBC, Time, BBC, EIA). The Iranian government claims the ship was seized due to a collision with a fishing vessel, though the seizure has also been seen as retaliation for British actions (LA Times, Reuters). The release of the Stena Impero crew from Iranian custody is immaterial to the resolution of the question.

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Name Probability
Yes 80%

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