&nbspThe Early Warning Project asks

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?

Started Feb 02, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s Definitions page. Violence erupted in Burundi in May 2015 following an attempted coup after President Pierre Nkurunziza announced he was running for a third term. It has continued since then (BBC). The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Burundi as one of the top 60 countries with the greatest risk of an onset of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's blog. Recommended Question Who will win Uganda's next presidential election? This question was closed as a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Burundi before the end of 2016 (Early Warning Project). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.00%
No 97.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 278
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1768
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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