Question 9 of 30 in In The News 2019
Started Sep 11, 2019 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Nov 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Between 11 September 2019 and 31 October 2019, what will be the widest closing spread of the yield on 10-year Treasurys below the yield on 2-year Treasurys?

When interest rates on longer term debt drop below rates on shorter term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC, Reuters). The outcome will be determined using Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury by comparing the value in the "2 Yr" column with the value in the "10 Yr" column for each day (U.S. Department of the Treasury).

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Name Probability
The 10 yr yield will not close at or lower than the 2 yr yield 48%
The 10 Yr yield closing between .01 and .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield, inclusive 37%
The 10 Yr yield closing more than .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield 15%

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