Before 15 November 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?

Started Sep 18, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 15, 2019 07:59AM UTC

Recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil and gas infrastructure have further aggravated regional tensions in the Middle East (Al Jazeera, CNN). While Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility, accusations have been levied against (and denied by) Iran (BBC, CNBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 November 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 275
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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