Between 20 September 2019 and 15 October 2019, how many candidates for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States will cease to be candidates?

Started Sep 20, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 16, 2019 06:59AM UTC
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As of 20 September 2019, the 19 Democratic candidates relevant to this question are: Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Wayne Messam, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Joe Sestak, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang (NY Times). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.

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The question closed "None" with a closing date of 16 October 2019.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
None 100%
One or two 0%
Three or four 0%
Five or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.439
2.
-0.311
3.
-0.311
4.
-0.288
5.
-0.209

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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