&nbspThe Early Warning Project asks

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?

Started Feb 02, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s Definitions page. We consider Myanmar to already be experiencing a mass killing episode perpetrated by the state and targeting separatist groups and the Karen (EWP Myanmar). We are specifically asking about new episodes of mass killing with different targets (e.g., the Rohingya) or perpetrators (Reuters). The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Myanmar as the country with the greatest risk of an onset of new state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's blog. Recommended Question Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016? This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Myanmar in 2016(Early Warning Project). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 385
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1404
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.02
2.
-0.018
4.
-0.018
5.
-0.018

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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