Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s Definitions page.
We consider Myanmar to already be experiencing a mass killing episode perpetrated by the state and targeting separatist groups and the Karen (EWP Myanmar). We are specifically asking about new episodes of mass killing with different targets (e.g., the Rohingya) or perpetrators (Reuters). The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Myanmar as the country with the greatest risk of an onset of new state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question.
This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's blog.
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The EWP did not find evidence of a new mass killing episode in Myanmar in 2016(Early Warning Project).