Before 18 April 2020, will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?

Started Oct 18, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 18, 2020 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

There is an international arrest warrant out for Puigdemont, who fled Catalonia after an October 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal (Washington Post, El Pais, Reuters, Independent).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 April 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 153
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 298
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001133
2.
-0.001009
3.
-0.001009
4.
-0.000982
5.
-0.000838

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username