Capital Market Assumptions

Forecasting Experiment: Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs)

Started Oct 18, 2019 06:48PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC


Please join us in this new and exciting experiment to forecast “Capital Market Assumptions.” The survey will be different from forecasting on Good Judgment Open in two key ways: we’ll be asking for percentage levels rather than probabilities (nothing needs to add up to 100%), and the forecasting horizons are much longer than usual GJO questions (3 and 10 years as of the day you submit your forecast). The survey will take about 5 minutes on 2 pages. Feel free to share comments and discuss CMAs under this question. 

What we propose to do is apply the wisdom of the crowd to forecast the performance of three key asset classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities. These Capital Market Assumptions are used widely in the finance industry: portfolio managers and asset allocation decisions, financial advisors and retirement planning advice, analysts and security models, and so forth. To get this data, financial professionals have usually turned to historical data or projections from investment firms like Morningstar, BlackRock, Northern Trust, and Envestnet PMC. Until now! 

With your help, we will be generating a new, independent, crowd-sourced data series for Capital Market Assumptions. We will share the results with you and with financial professionals.  

Here are the key points to have in mind:

1) The survey will remain open through 30 November 2019 (extended by a month due to interest).

2) The predictions will not be scored.

3) These are annualized returns for each class, not the total for the overall time period. 

4) Once forecasts have been submitted, they cannot be changed. However, you may review the questions and return later to submit your forecasts. A preview of the CMA questions themselves is below.

When you are ready, here’s the link to the survey. Many thanks!

For a sneak peek at the CMA questions, see below:

**Please feel free to post questions and comments for discussion on this question page. 
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