Started Nov 15, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 11, 2020 03:00PM UTC

When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?

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Less than a year after Lebanon's new government received a vote of confidence in February 2019, ongoing popular protests led to Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation in October 2019 (Washington Post, Economist, France24).

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The question closed "Between 1 January and 29 February 2020" with a closing date of 11 February 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2020 0%
Between 1 January and 29 February 2020 63%
Between 1 March and 30 April 2020 13%
Between 1 May and 30 June 2020 6%
Not before 1 July 2020 18%

No. of
Forecasters

80

Forecast
Count

215


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.676
2.
-0.666
3.
-0.61
4.
-0.607
5.
-0.56