Started Nov 15, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 02, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Will the monthly U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) reach or exceed 4.0% for any month before 1 November 2020?

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Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS (Release), BLS (Data)). If applicable, the question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (BLS (Schedule)). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 April 2020.

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Correct Answer

Yes

Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

239

Forecast
Count

633

Crowd Brier Score

0.7923


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.743
2.
-0.743
3.
-0.738
4.
-0.732
5.
-0.726