Will the monthly U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) reach or exceed 4.0% for any month before 1 November 2020?
Closed Apr 02, 2020 06:59AM UTC
Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS (Release), BLS (Data)). If applicable, the question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (BLS (Schedule)). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 April 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100.00% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 239 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 633 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
