Started Nov 15, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC

How many of the following 10 marginal seats in the House of Commons will change parties in the upcoming 2019 UK elections?

The 10 marginal seats relevant to the resolution of this question follow below (Guardian). For the purposes of this question, each seat is considered to be held by a party as listed.

Conservative Party marginal seats (3): Hastings and Rye; Richmond Park; Cheltenham

Scottish Nationalist Party marginal seats (1): North East Fife

Labour Party marginal seats (5): Canterbury; Workington; Bolsover; Kensington; Crewe and Nantwitch

Liberal Democrat Party marginal seats (1): Brecon and Radnorshire

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Name Probability
None 4%
1 or 2 14%
3 or 4 38%
5 or 6 31%
7 or more 13%

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