Nesta asks
How many of the following 10 marginal seats in the House of Commons will change parties in the upcoming 2019 UK elections?
Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC
The 10 marginal seats relevant to the resolution of this question follow below (Guardian). For the purposes of this question, each seat is considered to be held by a party as listed.
Conservative Party marginal seats (3): Hastings and Rye; Richmond Park; Cheltenham
Scottish Nationalist Party marginal seats (1): North East Fife
Labour Party marginal seats (5): Canterbury; Workington; Bolsover; Kensington; Crewe and Nantwitch
Liberal Democrat Party marginal seats (1): Brecon and Radnorshire
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The question closed "7 or more" with a closing date of 12 December 2019.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| None | 0% | |
| 1 or 2 | 6% | |
| 3 or 4 | 39% | |
| 5 or 6 | 42% | |
| 7 or more | 13% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 170 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 260 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
