Nesta asks

How many of the following 10 marginal seats in the House of Commons will change parties in the upcoming 2019 UK elections?

Started Nov 15, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC

The 10 marginal seats relevant to the resolution of this question follow below (Guardian). For the purposes of this question, each seat is considered to be held by a party as listed.

Conservative Party marginal seats (3): Hastings and Rye; Richmond Park; Cheltenham

Scottish Nationalist Party marginal seats (1): North East Fife

Labour Party marginal seats (5): Canterbury; Workington; Bolsover; Kensington; Crewe and Nantwitch

Liberal Democrat Party marginal seats (1): Brecon and Radnorshire

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The question closed "7 or more" with a closing date of 12 December 2019.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
None 0%
1 or 2 6%
3 or 4 39%
5 or 6 42%
7 or more 13%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 170
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 260
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.41894
2.
-0.406036
3.
-0.376633
4.
-0.367167
5.
-0.308817

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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