Started Nov 22, 2019 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 11, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The Economist asks

How many seats in the Legislative Yuan will the Kuomintang party win in the next Taiwan parliamentary elections?

Elections for all 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan are scheduled for 11 January 2020. The Kuomingtang currently holds 35 seats (Economist, East Asia Forum).

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Name Probability
Less than 36 seats 38%
Between 36 and 42 seats 27%
Between 43 and 49 seats 19%
Between 50 and 56 seats 9%
More than 56 seats 7%

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