Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Before 1 January 2021, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?

Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 27, 2020 12:07AM UTC

As the 2020 presidential election approaches, a Supreme Court vacancy would be an important political development (CNN, National Review, CNN).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021" with a closing date of 26 October 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021 99%
Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021 1%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1479
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 3066
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.1
2.
-1.1
5.
-1.1

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username