Question 10 of 14 in Global Judgment Challenge
Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2021 07:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Will the United States experience at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth in 2020?

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2020 can be found here: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2021. The third estimate for Q3 2019 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent (BEA 2019). The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (BEA 2014).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Yes 21%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In