Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 02, 2020 06:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Will the United States experience at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth in 2020?

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2020 can be found here: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2021. The third estimate for Q3 2019 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent (BEA 2019). The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (BEA 2014).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 April 2020.

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Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

1395

Forecast
Count

2192


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-1.078
3.
-1.052
4.
-1.052
5.
-1.052