Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021?

Guaidó and his allies continue to face pressure from the Maduro government, including a threat by Venezuelan prosecutors to arrest Guaidó for "high treason" (Yahoo, Deutsche Welle, CBC). The duration of a detention or arrest is immaterial to the resolution of this question.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

1%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

1098

Forecast
Count

1872

Crowd Brier Score

0.1738


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.445
2.
-0.445
3.
-0.445
5.
-0.445

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