Started Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:

Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021?

Guaidó and his allies continue to face pressure from the Maduro government, including a threat by Venezuelan prosecutors to arrest Guaidó for "high treason" (Yahoo, Deutsche Welle, CBC). The duration of a detention or arrest is immaterial to the resolution of this question.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1098
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 1872
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.445
2.
-0.445
3.
-0.445
4.
-0.445
5.
-0.445

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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