Fareed Zakaria GPS and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?

Started Jan 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 20, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (CNN, BBC). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).

NOTE 17 February 2020: As WHO has begun reporting both "laboratory-confirmed" and "clinically diagnosed" cases in their reporting, GJO will include both for so long as WHO reports the figures. See bullet point #2 under Highlights in the 17 February Situation Report.

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The question closed "More than 200,000" with a closing date of 19 March 2020 (WHO).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 10,000 0%
Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive 0%
More than 25,000 but less than 100,000 0%
Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive 0%
More than 200,000 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 831
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 3268
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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