Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many U.S. states will the CDC report as having had a confirmed case of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of 28 February 2020?

Started Jan 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 28, 2020 07:59AM UTC

The first case of Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in Washington state in mid-January 2020 (WebMD, USAToday). As of 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported cases in four states (Arizona, California, Illinois, and Washington). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by the CDC for 28 February 2020 and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (CDC). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

NOTE 24 February 2020: We are aware that the CDC stopped providing the map depicting states with cases late last week. We have been in contact with the CDC seeking more information about their plans for future reporting. However, the threshold hasn't changed and data from the CDC will continue to be the controlling source for the resolution of this question.

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The question closed "Between 5 and 11" with a closing date of 29 February 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5 0%
Between 5 and 11 95%
Between 12 and 18 5%
Between 19 and 25 0%
More than 25 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 358
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 891
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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