Question 6 of 6 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started Jan 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Feb 28, 2020 07:59AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many U.S. states will the CDC report as having had a confirmed case of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of 28 February 2020?

The first case of Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in Washington state in mid-January 2020 (WebMD, USAToday). As of 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported cases in four states (Arizona, California, Illinois, and Washington). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by the CDC for 28 February 2020 and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (CDC). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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Name Probability
Less than 5 3%
Between 5 and 11 58%
Between 12 and 18 28%
Between 19 and 25 8%
More than 25 3%

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