Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exceed those from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)?
Closed Feb 09, 2020 08:00AM UTC
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak that began in late 2019 is drawing comparisons with the 2002-03 SARS outbreak, which killed 774 people (WHO, Who (SARS), NHS.uk, WHO (Coronavirus), The Hill). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 80 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (WHO).
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The question closed "Before 15 February 2020" with a closing date of 9 February 2020 (WHO).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 15 February 2020 | 100% | |
| Between 15 February 2020 and 31 March 2020 | 0% | |
| Between 1 April 2020 and 15 May 2020 | 0% | |
| Not before 16 May 2020 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 150 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 205 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 449 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 582 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
