Question 25 of 25 in Coronavirus Outbreak
Started Feb 07, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020?

The Chinese economy is expected to be impacted by the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus in the country (NBC News, BBC, Foreign Policy, FXStreet). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 1Q 2019, the index was 106.4, which equates to 6.4% growth. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2020 and closed when the relevant data for 1Q 2020 are released, scheduled for April 2020.

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Name Probability
Less than 4.0% 98%
Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive 2%
More than 4.5% but less than 5.0% 0%
Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive 0%
More than 5.5% 0%

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