What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2020?
Closed Jul 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC
The Chinese economy is expected to be impacted by the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus in the country (NBC News, BBC, Foreign Policy, FXStreet). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2019, the index was 106.2, which equates to 6.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2020 are released, scheduled for July 2020.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "Less than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 July 2020.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.0% | 100% | |
| Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 4.5% but less than 5.0% | 0% | |
| Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 5.5% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 462 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1010 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
