Before 1 July 2020, will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit?
Started
Feb 28, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 30, 2020 07:40PM UTC
Closed May 30, 2020 07:40PM UTC
Challenges
Tags
After passing a key safety milestone in January 2020 (SpaceX), Elon Musk is hopeful 'Crew Dragon', SpaceX's crewed capsule, launches soon (Space.com, CNBC).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 30 May 2020.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98.00% | |
| No | 2.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 193 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 743 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
