Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?

Started Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (BBC, Foreign Policy, Food and Agriculture Organization). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 131
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 634
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.675
3.
-0.642
4.
-0.62
5.
-0.612

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username