Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?

Started Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (BBC, Foreign Policy, Food and Agriculture Organization). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 131
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 634
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.690712
2.
-0.675059
3.
-0.64202
4.
-0.620473
5.
-0.6118

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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