Started Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?

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The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (BBC, Foreign Policy, Food and Agriculture Organization). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

131

Forecast
Count

634

Crowd Brier Score

0.4379


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.675
3.
-0.642
4.
-0.62
5.
-0.612

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