The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2021, will Cruise Automation launch a commercial ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?

Started Apr 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

General Motors' subsidiary Cruise Automation had announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019; however, the service was still under development at the beginning of 2020 (GMAuthority, USA Today). While the firm recently received a permit for testing from the state of California, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (Road Show, Reuters, Electronics 360). A service that operates along a fixed route and/or with backup drivers in the vehicles would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 161
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 342
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000129
2.
-0.000129
3.
-0.000111
4.
-0.000108
5.
-0.000104

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username