The Mack Institute asks

What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?

Started Apr 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles (Reuters, NASDAQ, CSP, IEA). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ( In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.

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The question closed "More than 8.5%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.5% 0%
Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive 0%
More than 4.5% but less than 6.5% 24%
Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive 47%
More than 8.5% 29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 235
Number of Forecasts 580
Average for questions older than 6 months: 651
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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