The Mack Institute asks

What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?

Started Apr 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Clean TechnicaFinancial Times). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study. The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" (The Mack Institute).

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The question closed "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $80 per kWh 1%
Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive 40%
More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh 59%
Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive 0%
More than $140 per kWh 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 114
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 374
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.472712
2.
-0.42184
3.
-0.409816
4.
-0.407904
5.
-0.385623

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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