Started Sep 01, 2015 05:44PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 08, 2015 09:00PM UTC

Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?

Tags
Society  
Challenges

The question will use any of the categories listed on the best sellers website, www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books , and the corresponding links for these categories. For example, we will consider the 20 titles listed from the "Hardcover nonfiction" link and the 15 titles from the "E-book nonfiction" link.

Final Crowd Forecast

36%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

296

Forecast
Count

540

Crowd Brier Score

0.8893


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.889
2.
-0.852
4.
-0.79
5.
-0.783

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