Started Sep 01, 2015 05:44PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 08, 2015 09:00PM UTC

Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?

The question will use any of the categories listed on the best sellers website, www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books , and the corresponding links for these categories. For example, we will consider the 20 titles listed from the "Hardcover nonfiction" link and the 15 titles from the "E-book nonfiction" link.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 35.50%
No 64.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 296
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 540
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.889
2.
-0.852
4.
-0.79
5.
-0.783

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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