Started Sep 01, 2015 05:44PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 08, 2015 09:00PM UTC

Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?

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The question will use any of the categories listed on the best sellers website, www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books , and the corresponding links for these categories. For example, we will consider the 20 titles listed from the "Hardcover nonfiction" link and the 15 titles from the "E-book nonfiction" link.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 35.50%
No 64.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 296
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 540
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
RichStenberg
-0.889
2.
ben
-0.852
3.
jeremylichtman
-0.843
4.
Khalid
-0.79
5.
yankeeracer
-0.783

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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