Started May 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 06:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?

Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years (NHTSA, U.S. News). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list (OICA). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.

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Name Probability
0 95%
1 5%
2 0%
3 or more 0%

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