Started Jun 05, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 05, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Before 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper cease to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense?

Defense Secretary Esper's future in the Trump Administration is in question after developments related to protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (Economist, Defense News, Politico).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2020.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

302

Forecast
Count

872

Crowd Brier Score

0.2029


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.289
2.
-0.289
3.
-0.284
4.
-0.252
5.
-0.251

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