The Economist asks:

Before 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper cease to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense?

Started Jun 05, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2020 06:59AM UTC

Defense Secretary Esper's future in the Trump Administration is in question after developments related to protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (Economist, Defense News, Politico).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 302
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 872
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.289
2.
-0.289
3.
-0.284
4.
-0.252
5.
-0.251

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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