The Mack Institute asks:

Will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law before 1 January 2021?

Started Jun 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs (The Hill, Federation of American Scientists, Congress.gov (House Bill), Congress.gov (Senate Bill)). Legislators are renewing efforts this term, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" (The Hill, Legal Reader). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.

This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1659. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If this shorter-term question closes Yes, then the longer-term question will be voided.

Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 181
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 324
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001
2.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username