Started Jun 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 31, 2020 10:59PM UTC

The Mack Institute asks:

Will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law before 1 January 2021?

Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs (The Hill, Federation of American Scientists, (House Bill), (Senate Bill)). Legislators are renewing efforts this term, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" (The Hill, Legal Reader). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.

This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1659. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If this shorter-term question closes Yes, then the longer-term question will be voided.

Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

Name Probability
Yes 0%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username