The Mack Institute asks:

Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?

Started Jun 16, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs (The HillFederation of American (House Bill) (Senate Bill)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" (The HillLegal Reader). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.

This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 60.00%
No 40.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 137
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 340
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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