How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?

Started Jun 26, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation (CNN, Scientific American, Lancet). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 (Africa CDC).

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The question closed "Between 2.5 million and 5 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 2.5 million 0%
Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive 100%
More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million 0%
Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 20.0 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 204
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.168783
2.
-0.144282
3.
-0.141702
5.
-0.13488

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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