Started Jul 07, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 07, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks:

For between 8 July 2020 and 7 August 2020, how many fatalities related to political violence and protest events will ACLED record in Ethiopia?

The murder of Hachalu Hundessa, a popular singer from Ethiopia's Oromia region, has triggered violence across much of the country (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) at acleddata.com. On the page, set the "From" field to 8 July 2020, the "To" field to 7 August 2020, the "Country" field to "Ethiopia" (the remaining fields left at "All") and click "Export."  The total of the numbers under "fatalities" in the exported file will be retrieved at 5:00PM ET on 14 August 2020.

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Due to a "pause" (see note fromo ACLED below), we will wait until early September to resolve this question:

"ACLED’s real-time data updates are currently paused through August 2020. Data for 2 August to 5 September will be released on 7 September, at which point real-time data publication will resume."


The question closed "Fewer than 100" with a closing date of 8 August 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 100 100%
Between 100 and 500 0%
Between 501 and 1,000 0%
Between 1,001 and 3,000 0%
More than 3,000 0%

No. of
Forecasters

82

Forecast
Count

261

Crowd Brier Score

0.043


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.066
2.
-0.059
5.
-0.034

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