Started Jul 10, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks:

Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?

Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve (Ars TechnicaABC NewsNY TimesCentre for International Governance Innovation). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.

This question is the longer-term companion of question #1695. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.

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NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.

Name Probability
Yes, a firm 5%
Yes, a paid backup driver 4%
Yes, both 2%
No 89%

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