Started Jul 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will China's Three Gorges Dam fail before 1 October 2020?

Recent flooding has devastated large areas of China, drawing attention to the safety and efficacy of the massive Three Gorges Dam (Economist, The Interpreter, Reuters). For the purposes of this question, a failure would be the actual "sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water" (U.S. Forest Service).

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NOTE 24 August 2020: Mere use of the dam spillway alone would not count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 341
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 692
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0
2.
-0.0
3.
-0.0
4.
-0.0

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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