Started Jul 22, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will China's Three Gorges Dam fail before 1 October 2020?

Recent flooding has devastated large areas of China, drawing attention to the safety and efficacy of the massive Three Gorges Dam (Economist, The Interpreter, Reuters). For the purposes of this question, a failure would be the actual "sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water" (U.S. Forest Service).

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NOTE 24 August 2020: Mere use of the dam spillway alone would not count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.

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Correct Answer

No

Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

No. of
Forecasters

341

Forecast
Count

692

Crowd Brier Score

0.0003


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0
3.
-0.0
4.
-0.0
5.
-0.0