Before 14 November 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation in Lebanon or Israel between the armed forces of Hezbollah and those of Israel?

Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 14, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Tensions between Lebanon and Israel have flared recently (Anadolu Agency, Arab News). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the forces of either side. A lethal confrontation in the airspace or territorial waters of either country would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 14 November 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 540
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.119893
3.
-0.114975
4.
-0.109355
5.
-0.109162

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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