The Mack Institute asks:
Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion (CNBC, Forbes). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries (Amazon, India Times, Forbes). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service | 30% | |
| Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package | 0% | |
| Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service | 13% | |
| No | 57% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 148 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 484 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
