How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?
Started
Aug 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 11, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 11, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 11 January 2021 at https://rt.live. As of 18 August 2020, 20 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "23 or more" with a closing date of 11 January 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 7 or fewer | 0% | |
| Between 8 and 12 | 0% | |
| Between 13 and 17 | 0% | |
| Between 18 and 22 | 0% | |
| 23 or more | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 118 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 598 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
