Question 62 of 73 in In the News 2021
Started Aug 18, 2020 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 11, 2021 08:01AM UTC

How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?


The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" ( The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 11 January 2021 at As of 18 August 2020, 20 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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Name Probability
7 or fewer 0%
Between 8 and 12 0%
Between 13 and 17 0%
Between 18 and 22 5%
23 or more 95%

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