How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?
Closed Jan 11, 2021 08:01AM UTC
The Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 11 January 2021 at https://rt.live. As of 18 August 2020, 20 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
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The question closed "23 or more" with a closing date of 11 January 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 7 or fewer | 0% | |
| Between 8 and 12 | 0% | |
| Between 13 and 17 | 0% | |
| Between 18 and 22 | 0% | |
| 23 or more | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 118 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 598 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
