For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?

Started Oct 09, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 11, 2021 06:00PM UTC

The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.

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NOTE 7 June 2021: 15 June 2021 is included in the span of time covered by the question. Data will be accessed on 30 June 2021 to determine resolution.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 June 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.108
2.
-0.107
3.
-0.105
5.
-0.102

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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