Started Apr 19, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC

How many worker protests will the China Labor Bulletin record from 1 May 2016 to 1 November 2016?

This question was closed with the correct answer "Fewer than 1,200" with an end date of 31 October 2016. CLB reported that 1,120 strikes or protests occurred during the period in question. (China Labour Bulletin) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated


Worker protests include all events monitored by CLB including strikes, protests, demonstrations, sit-ins, road blocks, transportation strikes, and events labeled "other." China's slowing economy has led to an increase in labor unrest (China Labor Bulletin, Wall Street Journal, NY Times, Washington Post). Outcome will be determined by China Labor Bulletin (CLB) in its Strike Map. Select from the drop-down menu the period 2016-5 through 2016-10, and "Any" for location, participants, and industry. The total number of worker protests can be found by looking just below the search box. It is reported as "Results Found" in bold black letters just above the list of sources. Monthly totals are also recorded on the graph. The question will be suspended on 31 October but will be resolved on 30 November to allow CLB to collect and code reports from late October. Recommended Questions Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive 0%
Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive 0%
More than 5,000 0%
Fewer than 1,200 100%
More than 2,000 but less than 3,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 109
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 838
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.241
2.
-0.238
3.
-0.237
4.
-0.234
5.
-0.226

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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