Started Dec 23, 2020 10:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?

Tags
Health  
Challenges

As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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The question closed "8 or fewer" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
8 or fewer 100%
Between 9 and 15 0%
Between 16 and 22 0%
Between 23 and 29 0%
30 or more 0%

No. of
Forecasters

121

Forecast
Count

510

Crowd Brier Score

0.4169


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.479
3.
-0.442
4.
-0.402
5.
-0.393

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